For Immediate Release
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (May 6, 2026) — The Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce, in partnership with the Middle Tennessee State University (MTSU) Business and Economic Research Center (BERC), today released the inaugural Middle Tennessee Business Confidence Index (BCI), providing a comprehensive, data-driven pulse of regional business conditions.
The first-quarter 2026 index registered 60.1 on a 0–100 scale, indicating net-positive business sentiment across Middle Tennessee. Regional reading slightly exceeds the 59 reported by the Conference Board’s CEO Confidence Index, positioning Middle Tennessee as modestly more optimistic than its national peers while facing distinct regional constraints.
A Strong Start with Measured Optimism
The report reveals that business leaders are entering 2026 with confidence in current conditions, though expectations for the future are more tempered:
- Current Conditions Index: 69.5
- Future Expectations Index: 60.7
- Composite Index: 60.1
- Survey Base: 135 regional firms across industries
“This survey gives us a timely pulse of Middle Tennessee businesses – where they see opportunity, where constraints are slowing execution, and which policy issues are shaping their decisions,” said Stephanie Coleman, president and CEO of the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce. “What makes this effort particularly powerful is its regional focus,” Coleman continued. “It captures the lived reality of our business community – from small firms to major employers – and provides a foundation for smarter, more responsive economic strategy.”
Local Strength, External Uncertainty
The index highlights a key pattern: firm-level confidence (sales, profitability) remains strong, while broader economic outlooks are more cautious.
- Sales expectations and profit outlooks are among the strongest components
- Economic confidence and tax policy sentiment remain below neutral thresholds
- Capital investment expectations show mixed signals
“The index uses a Conference Board-compatible 0–100 diffusion framework, allowing us to interpret regional sentiment alongside national benchmarks with consistency,” said Murat Arik, Ph.D., director of MTSU’s Business and Economic Research Center. “The data clearly show that Middle Tennessee businesses are resilient and growth-oriented. However, their ability to execute depends heavily on external conditions, especially costs, labor availability, housing, infrastructure, and policy clarity.”
Key Regional Constraints: Housing, Workforce, and Costs
While overall sentiment is positive, the report identifies structural barriers that could limit future growth:
- Housing affordability (Index: 49.8), near neutral, signaling a major workforce constraint
- Infrastructure impact (56.7), modestly positive but still a friction point
- Zoning and permitting (67.1), relatively strong, indicating progress in regulatory processes
“Businesses are telling us very clearly that workforce challenges are no longer just about skills; they’re about whether employees can afford to live here, commute efficiently, and sustain a high quality of life,” Coleman noted.
Open-Ended Insights: Opportunities vs. Constraints
The survey’s qualitative responses (Q15 and Q16) provide deeper context behind the index.
Top Opportunities Identified by Businesses
- Market growth and demand expansion (36.2%)
- Technology adoption and productivity gains (23.4%)
- Workforce development initiatives (12.8%)
- Tourism and local economic activity (11.7%)
Top Constraints Identified by Businesses
- Policy and regulatory uncertainty (24.5%)
- Cost pressures and inflation (21.3%)
- Labor shortages and skill gaps (18.1%)
- Interest rates and financing conditions (11.7%)
“The open-ended responses are where the story really comes alive,” Coleman added. “They show that businesses are not lacking opportunity—they are navigating complexity. Their growth depends on how effectively we address these constraints.”
Policy Priorities: A Clear Call to Action
Business leaders identified several priority areas for policy and program support:
- Tax relief and reform (26.2%)
- Infrastructure and transportation investment (22.5%)
- Affordable and workforce housing (17.5%)
- Access to capital for small businesses (17.5%)
- Workforce development and education (12.5%)
“The alignment between business challenges and policy recommendations is striking,” said Arik. “For example, cost pressures map directly to tax policy, labor shortages map to workforce development, and housing constraints map to affordability initiatives. This creates a very actionable roadmap for regional decision-makers.”
Regional vs. National Perspective
While the national Conference Board CEO Confidence Index focuses heavily on large corporations and global risks, the Middle Tennessee BCI captures on-the-ground operating realities:
| Dimension | Middle Tennessee BCI | National CEO Confidence |
| Sentiment | 60.1 (moderately positive) | 59 (somewhat positive) |
| Focus | Regional business ecosystem | Large national firms |
| Key Issues | Housing, workforce, infrastructure, taxes | Hiring, capital spending, global risks |
“This is why a regional index matters,” Arik explained. “National data cannot fully capture the localized dynamics, such as housing affordability or infrastructure bottlenecks, that directly influence business decisions here in Middle Tennessee.”
A New Tool for Regional Strategy
The Middle Tennessee Business Confidence Index is designed as a quarterly, repeatable tool to track business sentiment and inform economic strategy.
“This is just the beginning,” Coleman concluded. “Over time, this index will become a critical decision-making tool for business leaders, policymakers, and community stakeholders as we work together to sustain Middle Tennessee’s economic competitiveness and quality of life.”
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About the Report
The index is based on responses from 135 businesses across multiple industries, including services, construction, technology, retail, and manufacturing. It uses a diffusion index methodology where scores above 50 indicate net-positive sentiment. A live dashboard with rich details about the index is available at https://mtbci.org/ and https://berc.mtsu.edu
About the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce
The Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce is Middle Tennessee’s largest business federation, representing over 1,800 member companies. Belong, engage, lead, prosper embodies the Chamber’s focus on creating economic prosperity by facilitating community leadership. Established in 1990 as an economic development and community enhancement initiative of the Chamber, Partnership 2030 is a regional cooperative dedicated to making Middle Tennessee among the nation’s best places to live, work, and do business. Partnership 2030 is supported by a diverse group of public and private companies as well as governmental agencies from the organization’s 10-county service area. The work of the Chamber is supported by its members, Partnership 2030 investors, and sponsors; the Chamber’s Pivotal Partners (a partnership at the highest level for all Chamber programs and events) are Gresham Smith and Regions Bank. For more information, visit www.nashvillechamber.com.
About Middle Tennessee State University
Founded in 1911 as one of three state normal schools for teacher training, Middle Tennessee State University is one of the oldest and largest undergraduate universities in the state of Tennessee. With a fall enrollment averaging more than 20,000 students for the past five years, MTSU remains committed to providing individualized service in an exciting and nurturing atmosphere where student success is the top priority. MTSU features eight undergraduate colleges and the College of Graduate Studies, and more than 350 majors and concentrations combined. Offering a wide variety of nationally recognized programs at the baccalaureate, master’s and doctoral levels, MTSU takes pride in educating the best and the brightest students from Tennessee and around the world. For more information, visit http://mtsu.edu.
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